Poll: Obama ahead by 10 points in Michigan
A new poll shows President Barack Obama leading Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 10 points in Michigan as conservative groups pull back advertising statewide.
A poll conducted by EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press and other media outlets saw Obama take a commanding lead in Romney’s home state following the Democratic National Convention, leading 47 percent to 37 percent. The polling firm’s previous Michigan poll, conducted after the Republican National Convention, showed a much narrower lead for the president, 49 percent to 46 percent.
Obama has the lead among independent voters at 36 percent to 27 percent, a big shift from previous EPIC-MRA polls that showed Romney with the lead among that crucial bloc.
Obama and other Democrats spent much of the DNC calling the 2009 bailouts of General Motors and Chrysler one of the major successes of the Obama administration, a message that appears to have resonated with Michigan voters.
“When the whole theme for the Democrats is Osama bin Laden is dead and GM is alive … that’s got to help in Michigan and Ohio and a couple other states as well,” EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn told the Free Press.
The poll may justify why the Romney campaign and outside groups supporting Romney are pulling back advertising in Michigan and instead focusing on other, more competitive states.
$4.2 million has been spent on advertising by the Romney campaign in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire since the end of the conventions, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Despite claims from the campaign otherwise, it appears that Michigan and Pennsylvania, and their combined 36 electoral votes, have been largely ceded to Obama.
The Romney campaign is not alone in giving up on Michigan. The pro-Romney super PACs Americans for Prosperity and American Crossroads have also stopped spending money in the state, meaning Michigan is likely Obama’s state to lose.
Abandoning Michigan and Pennsylvania and instead focusing on the other nine states means Romney’s path to victory is much narrower.
If those two states are put in Obama’s column, the president would have a 237-191 electoral vote lead on his challenger, with 110 votes in play. 270 electoral votes are needed to win.
That means Romney must win somewhere between five and eight of those nine swing states to be elected. According to the Real Clear Politics polling averages of those nine swing states, he currently leads in two: North Carolina and Virginia.
Most scenarios involve Romney winning both Florida and Ohio, the two biggest prizes in play. No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio and no Republican since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 has won without Florida.
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