Obama holds solid lead in key swing states
By John Irwin on September 27, 2012 1:24 pm / no comments
President Barack Obama received some good news in multiple polls earlier this week showing his lead over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney widening in key swing states.
Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania appear to be leaning in the president’s direction after a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, the New York Times and CBS News showed Obama with substantial leads in all three states. The poll, released Monday, found Obama up by 12 points, 54 percent to 42 percent, in Pennsylvania, 10 points in Ohio, 53 percent to 43 percent, and nine points in Florida, 53 percent to 44 percent.
Those states are crucial to both campaigns. If Obama was to win just those three states, he would be re-elected even if he lost every other swing state. Meanwhile, Florida and Ohio are widely considered must-win states for Romney since his path to victory in the Electoral College is narrow if he loses even one of them.
The results of the Quinnipiac poll were supported by other recent polls. A Washington Post poll of Ohio voters released Sunday found Obama up by eight points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That same poll also found Obama ahead in Florida, but by a smaller margin: 51 percent to 47 percent.
No Republican has won the White House without Ohio and no Republican since Calvin Coolidge in 1924 has won without Florida.
A Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania voters released Sunday has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by a 52-percent to 43-percent margin.
Romney dismissed the polls in an interview with ABC News Wednesday, saying it is too early to be paying too much attention to polling data.
“I’m tied in the national polls, both Gallup and Rasmussen have the numbers at even,” Romney said. “State by state, you’ve got some advertising going on from the Obama people, which expresses their views on my positions which frankly, I think are inaccurate, and in some cases, dishonest.”
While Gallup’s national tracking poll has had Obama and Romney in a relatively close race for much of the election season, Wednesday’s tracking poll had Obama ahead by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent.
Real Clear Politics’ state polling averages finds Obama ahead in every one of its listed toss-up states. It recently moved Ohio into Obama’s column, as well, meaning Obama would only have to win one other toss-up state in order to be re-elected.
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