Polls show presidential race tied nationally, Obama up six points in Michigan
By John Irwin on October 21, 2012 3:16 pm / 30 comments
Polls show President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney heading into a very close Nov. 6 election, and both campaigns are ratcheting up campaign spending in response.
The Real Clear Politics average of national polls shows a virtual tie between the two candidates, with Obama holding a very narrow 47.1 percent to 46.9 percent lead over Romney.
Two recent polls show Obama’s lead in Michigan settling at a comfortable margin for the president after briefly becoming close following the first presidential debate.
A Rasmussen Reports poll found Obama with a 52 percent to 45 percent lead among likely voters, while an EPIC-MRA poll conducted for the Detroit Free Press had Obama up 52 percent to 46 percent.
“I think the (second) debate had a role,” EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn told the Free Press. “You look at people who watched the debate; they’re voting for Obama more than the state as a whole is. Only among people who didn’t watch the debate are they tied.”
Nationally, Obama holds an advantage over Romney in the Electoral College, but swing-state races have tightened as well.
Putting Michigan and Pennsylvania (two states where the president holds average leads of five percent) in Obama’s column and North Carolina (where Romney leads by an average of roughly five percent) in Romney’s column, Obama holds a 237-206 electoral vote lead over Romney, with 95 votes in play. To win, a candidate must collect 270 votes.
Of the eight swing states currently in play, Obama holds small leads in Ohio (18 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), Iowa (six votes) and Nevada (six votes), while Romney has small leads in Florida (29 votes), Virginia (13 votes), Colorado (nine votes) and New Hampshire (four votes), according to RCP’s polling averages. All together, that would translate into a narrow Obama win, 277-261.
Both campaigns have started to ramp up already record-breaking campaign spending through Nov. 6 in a last-ditch attempt to win over undecided voters in swing states.
Both campaigns, their parties and their super PAC allies are virtually assured of pulling in over $1 billion in donations each. Team Obama has hauled in $969 million in donations so far while Romney’s side has raised $919 million so far.
Despite Obama’s fundraising lead, Romney has more cash on hand to spend in the final weeks of the campaign in swing states.
Following a brutal Republican primary battle, the Obama campaign took a risk and spent millions of dollars in advertising in the spring and summer seeking to define Romney as an out-of-touch plutocrat. The strategy worked, as Romney lagged behind Obama in polls for most of the year.
Following Romney’s strong performance in the first debate, the polls have since tightened, providing Romney an opportunity to potentially pull ahead in swing states by outspending Obama. Romney and his allies have roughly $45 million more in the bank than Obama and his allies.
Romney’s campaign has spent millions in swing states over the past couple weeks, presenting him as a bipartisan problem solver and Obama as a partisan Democrat who broke his promises.
Meanwhile, the Obama camp is seeking to remind voters of Romney’s time as CEO of Bain Capital, while portraying the president as a leader who has risen up to the occasion during historically tough times.
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30 Comments
President Barackobama, for re-election 2012, 4 more years.
Please, college students with no real world experience…do not vote for Obama again. The job market is awful, more spending and more debt (more of the same) won’t improve it, history proves that. If you don’t care about finding a job or having to worry about paying off national debt for years to come, vote for Obama.
Please college kid who graduated in 06 and barely has life experience do not vote for Romney. Obama 2012~
You don’t know what my post college experience has been or what others my age have dealt with. Again, if you’re not concerned about jobs, vote Obama.
History proves you’re an idiot. So does the present. Austerity deepens recessions.
History proves I’m an idiot? Ok. Nobody said anything about austerity though.
Obama is the Dan Enos of politics. If I were a CMU student and looking to get a decent job after graduation during the next 4 years, I’d vote Romney. I’m in business. I work everyday with hundreds of businesses. They’re not hiring because of Obamacare, all the Obama regulations and taxes he’s proposing on businesses.
Some businesses are shifting their full-time employees to part-time.
Unless you want to flip burgers at McDonalds, I strongly recommend Mitt Romney and Pete Hoekstra. Don’t forget we need 51 Republican Senators to overturn Obamacare.
Mitt created thousands of jobs in his private sector days and turned around the Salt Lake City Olympics. He balanced the budget when governing Massachusetts.
That’s another thing, you young people will have to payoff the trillions of dollars of debt (6 trillion) that Obama has racked up. Think of it this way, you give michmediaperson your credit card and I go to the Mall and Casino and rack up $2,000 of charges and hand the card back to you. You’re stuck paying the bill.
That’s what Obama is doing to you. Bill Clinton was tolerable but Barack Hussein Obama isn’t.
I strongly urge you if you want a decent job and don’t want to move home to your parent’s bedroom like half the current grads are nationwide because they can’t find jobs, then I urge you to vote Romney and Hoekstra and you should tell your family and friends.
If you are wrong on gambling on Obama, you’re stuck with him until 2017. I’m already a millionaire. I can kick back and play golf. I owe nothing. You young people have student loans to pay off and want to get a decent job.
In addition, he’s giving amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants. So, now you’re competing against millions of illegals. They’ll work for less money so they drive down the salaries for you young people. Median income, by the way, is down about $4,000 since Obama came into office.
In the debates, Obama has shown no plan for the next 4 years except running the same losing gameplan. Similar to Dan Enos and his management of our once-great football team.
Think about it. If you’re wrong, you’re stuck till 2017.
Are you paid by the word?????
You are an idiot. Well, at least you know how to cut and paste all that nonsense. I doubt if you’ve ever had $20 in your pocket. How did the economy get this way, the biggest recession ever? What party in Congress has blocked every introduced job bill? Who in Congress make it clear from day one to make POTUS a one term president, all to the detriment of the country?
To Phil Hopson: Barack Hussein Obama wants a job bill filled with union workers like teachers who will have union dues kicked back to him.
We want private sector jobs. Oil drilling, coal mining, nuclear plants, small business. Let’s bring back all the telemarketing jobs from India, the Phillipines and Parts Unknown. Get tough on the Chinese.
About 23 million are either unemployed or underemployed.
Barack Hussein Obama has had 4 years. His first 2 years, he had 60 Democrats in the US Senate….and a Democratic House. He had his opportunity to pass any legislation from jobs to immigration, but chose to play golf and run with the Hollywood crowd. He is an empty chair. Clint Eastwood got it right. He is an empty chair…and his incompetent vice-President Crazy Uncle Joe Biden is an empty high chair since he acts like a 2-year old. The thought of him being a heartbeat away is scary.
Lee Iacocca, the man who saved Chrysler in 1980 admits he made a mistake in 2008 endorsing Obama. Iacocca said to save the nation we need Mitt Romney.
I personally don’t need the money. I have a nice bankroll. Obama would cut into my capital gains on stocks and other financial instruments but I’ll just cut back on charitable contributions.
Phil, don’t be brainwashed. Look at California and Illinois where Obama Democrats have run those states into the ground and will soon have to declare bankruptcy. They keep raising taxes and the deficits grow.
Phil, I’m going to tell you and CMU students, something you will never hear from your liberal CMU students. I learned this from Ronald Reagan.
“No civilization has ever taxed itself into prosperity.”
That’s why communism and socialism has failed. Obama has never learned this from all his left-wing nutty friends.
Please explain how we bring telemarketing jobs back from Asia. Eliminate minimum wage?
Telemarketing jobs back from India and the Phillipines. Your Liberal Democrat Senator from New York, Charles Schumer says to put a $1 surcharge on all calls from Dell, United, American Express, Citibank that gets transferred to India and Phillipines.
I said put a $100 charge on each call and bill Dell, United, etc.
This way these companies will bring back telemarketing jobs and we can put thousands of Americans to work.
“Think of it this way, you give michmediaperson your credit card and I go
to the Mall and Casino and rack up $2,000 of charges and hand the card
back to you. You’re stuck paying the bill.”
Nope. I report you to the police for credit card fraud, and your ignorant, racist ass ends up in jail. And I laugh.
“If you’re wrong, you’re stuck till 2017.”
As if that doesn’t apply to R-money. Or do you have some sort of contingency plan to elevate Eddie Monster to the presidency?
“I’m already a millionaire. I can kick back and play golf.” Too bad the CM-Life comment section is holding you back.
I see all the Right Wingers are on here with their FOX talking points……not a FACT to be found.
Vote Romney Ryan…Im in California…believe me..you DONT want what we got!
Wait, you do realize that California pays MORE in Federal taxes than they get back. The Conservative States, IE Alabama, Georgia, Texas, get back a TON of money. Which means the liberal states are paying for the Conservative States. Bummer deal. Maybe those people in the red states should get jobs.
“Im in California…believe me..you DONT want what we got!”
California has you, and we don’t want that, but there’s no way in hell I’m voting for the American Psychos.
liberals are liars
GREAT post.
I agree with you Judi. How so many people can vote against their best interest is mind boggling. The POTUS was on point last night.
It is the How not the What. The thing that does not seem to be pointed out enough about Obama is how lazy he is. Look at the first debate. Too lazy to care. No budget ever cause it is hard work! Not plan for entitlement because it is hard work! When a million important decisions are needed weekly by the president, lazy don’t cut it. Strategic goals only get 90% done and the undone 10% kills the value. Too lazy to even work with his team let alone a team that challenges his details puts all of us in deep jeopardy. I am voting for Romney even if it just because he will do the work and we clearly need it. Highly complex issues require intense high-dimensional thinking and Baracko aint got it. How any hardworking rationale person cannot see the high degree of danger that Obama can cause is beyond me. Ideals are absorbing but stop and think. What is going to change the direction. Laziness causes lack of teaming because that is personally difficult, hence no interaction from Obama even with his own team. Laziness is also slow to act and also prone to be evasion and untrustworthy approaches “I’ll have more flexibility after the election.” Obama is going to continue on his path because if he is elected he will feel like “I Won” and that is endorsement of his laziness. I see lots of continued in action. Give me a man with a strategic skew that works hard over a man who believes his ideals are Solomonesk but is lazy. When you realize the issue is just plain, simple laziness then you are not demonizing Obama and not commenting on his what, his strategy. His how is more broken than his what. . Please consider the risk when you vote and go with the guy who will do the work.
See Marina, it’s only ok for him to make assumptions about us.
One piece of news last month–is an “Election Killer” for Obama & his Democrats-!
It was a short ABC Video with Diane Sawyer & Chris Cuomo in a debate on a News
Subject–”U.S. Bridges & Roads are being Built by Chinese Workers”-! Where-? In
San Franciso, Oakland, Alaska & New York City-! Wow-! You mean–”This is Part
of the ‘Job Stimulus’ Billions-?” Tax-Payers Money is “Going to Create Jobs for
Thousands of Chinese Communist Workers”–but “Not AMERICAN WORKERS”-!
Sounds like a “Bait & Switch Fraud” to ME-! And Obama Verifies that This is “His Plan” to ‘Redistribute the Wealth to Chinese Communist Workers’-! Come On–Now,
He’s Not “That Stupid–Is He-!” This could “Lose” the 2012 Elections–if the Unions & 20 Million “Unemployed Workers”–Don’t Vote For Him-!
So Much for Obama’s SOTU Message–about “Bringing Jobs Back to America”–this one’s “approved by Obama”-! The Chinese workers must have Obama’s
“Permission to enter the U.S. Borders”-! So it’s already begun-! For you Americans
who think that a “Trillion Dollars in ‘Stimulus Money’–is “Creating American Jobs”–
This one will be “Tough for Supporters of the current regime” to “Swallow”–and it comes from ABC News (as being Liberals)-! Just type in–”U.S. Bridges & Roads
Being Built by Chinese Workers”–(This is an “Amazing Video to Watch”) Cheers
for a “United Military & Seniors REUNION”–After Obama Said ” I’d rather have
Abortions–than pay the Military, their Salaries-!” The Seniors want their 500
Billion Dollars–back in their “Medicare”–& not “Fund Abortions of Helpless Babies”-!
Are you just uneducated or what? You do not understand business, or how to balance a checking account? You don’t understand that to borrow is NOT a good thing? Do you not realize the RICH provide jobs and the poor suck up cash? We are already 16 trillion in debt, if China is clueless, we can go further and never pay it back or get out of debt….PEOPLE…the last office that was debt free was Clinton, sure Bush threw money at the problem, but Obama just gave it away…shouldn’t we at least drug test welfare recipients? Or realize a failing auto economy and not throw out band-aids? Anyone voting for Obama have a healthy bank account? That is the key….if you work for a living and have money, you AREN’T voting for Obama, that is a given!!
“Are you just uneducated or what? You do not understand business, or how to balance a checking account? You don’t understand that to borrow is NOT a good thing? Do you not realize the RICH provide jobs and the poor suck up cash?”
False. The rich get rich with borrowed money. Look up what a “leveraged buy out” is. Credit fuels the economy. It’s exceedingly unlikely that you’ve never owed money to anyone, so get off your high horse.
“That is the key….if you work for a living and have money, you AREN’T voting for Obama, that is a given!!”
False. I work for a living and I have money. I’ll be voting for Obama, because Romney won’t do anything for me, and even if he would, society matters more to me than pure greed.
The Mid-American Conference can make history Tuesday by electing Paul Ryan, vice-president of the United States. We haven’t seen a Mid-American Conference graduate since Benjamin Harrison was elected president in 1888. Like Harrison, Ryan is a Miami of Ohio graduate. It would add prestige and value to every CMU degree with a MAC graduate in the White House.
Paul Ryan is a stupid person’s idea of a smart person. His “budget” is as full of holes and magical thinking as your brain. He’s got a BS in BS, is a disciple of a sociopath and has been a career politician.
If all goes well Tuesday, he’ll be looking for a new job. Driving the Weinermobile might not exceed his competence. Maybe.
Paul Ryan will be re-elected as a Congressman in Wisconsin. He’s running for 2 positions. Wisconsin allows you to do that. If he wins the veep, then he would resign his congressional seat.
Don’t count the cuckoo until he’s hatched.