COLUMN: Chippewas deserve to be favorites against MSU in NCAA Tournament
Central Michigan women's basketball plays in the Mid-American Conference, also known as a Mid-Major – a group of conferences that are often overlooked on the national scale.
Michigan State and Michigan take the court as members of the Big Ten Conference and are two well-known Power 5 programs across the country.
But with CMU's success over the past few years, a question has been raised: Who is the best team in the state?
It just so happens that, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, CMU battles MSU at 1 p.m. March 23 in South Bend, Ind., meaning at least part of the question will be solved.
For the Chippewas (25-7, 15-3 MAC), a first-round slot against the Spartans (20-11, 9-9 Big Ten) is a highly favorable matchup. Even though anything can happen in March, especially between a No. 8 and No. 9 seed, I would bet on Sue Guevara.
This is why.
CMU averages 80.3 points per game and allows an average of just 65.7 to its opposition. Meanwhile, Michigan State is worse in both categories – scoring 75.1 points per game and giving up 67.3.
Throughout the 2018-19 season, CMU and MSU played three similar opponents – Oakland, Virginia and Bowling Green. Here's how things shook out.
Central Michigan vs. Oakland (Nov. 8): W, 104-61
Michigan State at Oakland (Dec. 5): W, 102-58
Central Michigan at Virginia (Nov. 24): W, 74-61
Michigan State vs. Virginia (Nov. 28): W, 91-66
Central Michigan at Bowling Green (Feb. 20): W, 92-54
Michigan State vs. Bowling Green (Nov. 6): W, 99-69
For each game against the same exact opponent, the Chippewas and Spartans won by a similar margin, but that doesn't always mean it will shake out the same way when the pair square off.
Michigan State has struggled down the stretch, losing six of its last 10 games, including a 71-55 loss to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. CMU, on the other hand, has walked off the court victorious in nine of its last 10 games. The only loss was an 82-77 defeat at the hands of Buffalo in the MAC Tournament semifinals.
With the Chippewas clearly holding the momentum, another aspect to view is RPI, which is a quantity used to rank teams based upon wins, losses and strength of schedule. RPI is key for the NCAA Tournament committee to seed participants.
CMU has the No. 32 RPI, which is second in the MAC behind only Buffalo (25). Michigan State, however, sits at No. 43 in the country – fourth best in the Big Ten. While the Spartans got early wins against top-tier programs like Oregon and Iowa, coach Suzy Merchant's group fell apart late in the season.
Michigan State lost late regular season games to Wisconsin, Nebraska, Ohio State and Minnesota. None of those teams are in the NCAA Tournament, and the Spartans couldn't even get a victory when it mattered most.
The Chippewas, on the other hand, gave Louisville, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and No. 3 overall RPI, a run for its money. The Cardinals escaped McGuirk Arena with just a four-point win, 72-68. Guevara's group also fell to South Dakota State, 80-71, in Mount Pleasant. The Jackrabbits are a No. 6 seed in the Big Dance.
CMU defeated four 2019 NCAA Tournament teams in the regular season – No. 10 Buffalo (twice), No. 4 Miami (90-80), No. 11 Quinnipiac (67-52) and No. 12 UCF (75-68).
It's quite obvious that CMU is more prepared than Michigan State for the NCAA Tournament based on strength of schedule alone, but one thing that's missing is past games between the Chippewas and Spartans.
The last time these two programs met was in 2005. Neither Guevara or Merchant were at the helm. The Spartans won, 75-50.
But that was 12 years ago.
Right now, the Chippewas have all the energy going into the NCAA Tournament, while the Spartans had more negative than positive heading into the Big Dance.
Expect CMU to come out victorious, setting up a date with No. 1 Notre Dame – the reigning NCAA Tournament champs – on Monday.
