CMU faculty, alumnus, political groups offer perspective on primaries
Whether you're supporting "the best president money can't buy," or "the new choice for Democrats," whether you believe "our best days still lie ahead," or "actions speak louder than words," and whether you're "leading with love," or "feeling the Bern," the presidential primary campaigns are coming to Michigan.
Michigan's 2020 Presidential Primary Election is March 10, a week after Super Tuesday, when the majority of states hold primary elections or caucuses.
Central Michigan University Department of Political Science faculty and an expert alumnus spoke with Central Michigan Life to give students some advice and context to the ballots that change our country's future.
Examining polling
Jeremiah Castle is a 2015 Notre Dame alumnus with expertise in examining public opinion and political behavior, and has taught in CMU's Department of Political Science since 2016.
His passion for empirical data collection is shown in his book, "Rock of Ages: Subcultural Religious Identity and Public Opinion Among Young Evangelicals," which uses both survey data and case studies to identify the political attitudes of young evangelicals.
"The sorts of polls that are done by a professional firm are highly trustworthy," Castle said. "Polls are used to represent public opinion over whatever the sampling body is. What makes polling hard, especially during elections, is that voters aren't necessarily a representative sample of the public."
Pollsters can counter this potential error by using a "likely voter screening," a question that assesses the likelihood a person will vote in an upcoming election.
Castle points to the timing of releasing results as another flaw in polling, using the 2016 elections as an example.
"The expectation in the 2016 presidential election was that Hillary Clinton would win," he said. "People were surprised when they woke up the morning after Election Day to find out the polls had been wrong and Donald Trump had won. There's a pretty good case to be made that the polling error relates to then-FBI director James Comey announcing that the FBI was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails about a week before the elections."
This piece of breaking news, Castle speculated, caused many who would have voted for Clinton to stay home on Election Day.
Castle recommends students use the metaphor of a camera snapping a picture to interpret polls. A high-quality poll is a snapshot of the electorate's views at the time the poll was taken. Just like any picture, things are different before and after it was taken.
Michigan issue-based voting
The 2020 presidential elections have raised a substantial number of Democratic candidates that exhibit different levels of liberalism.
Vanguard Public Affairs, based in Lansing, is a leader in public relations, marketing services and media relations in Michigan. As president and managing partner, T.J. Bucholz offers his 20 years of experience in strategic communications, political advocacy and crisis management to his clients, and has contributed political commentary to Politico, The Washington Post and The New York Times.
"Democrats will think about the pocketbook issues, just like Republicans," he said. "This is job creation, economic development, schools, roads--those kinds of issues. Democrats also have a tendency to think about more progressive social issues like clean energy or a woman's right to choose."
Vanguard polls Michigan voters and asks, "What issue matters to you most?" Aside from job security and health care, Bucholz said another issue that resonates with Michigan voters is water.
"Anything that interferes with the quality of the Great Lakes, this can be water levels, pollution, fishery or invasive species, we take that personally," Bucholz said. "If you're a Democratic candidate and you're visiting Michigan, trying to sway a voter, you can always be safe by saying we need to protect and serve the Great Lakes."
Campus political groups weigh in
Political organizations ranging across the political spectrum on Central Michigan University's campus can help you make an informed choice in Michigan's 2020 presidential primary. CMU is home to political groups who endorse candidates, like New America Project, others who don't, like Turning Point USA, and advocacy groups that target specific issues, like Central Votes.
Adrian junior Lance Wood is the president of CMU’s chapter of the College Democrats. He’s not here to tell his fellow students who to vote for, and he said that his organization is not endorsing a specific candidate in the primary.
“We are striving to educate students on all of the candidates, and encouraging them to get involved with whatever campaign they personally support,” Wood said.
Wood used the metaphor of a big tent to convey the idea that the Democratic Party consists of individuals who may have different beliefs, but share “common morals” and a common vision.
“As long as the Democratic Party is able to unite behind a candidate after the primary I think it will be a strong challenge for Trump,” Wood said.
He encouraged everyone, regardless of who they support and what party they affiliate with, to educate themselves about this year’s candidates and issues. He wants people to vote for whomever they feel best represents them.
Another group, the New America Project (NAP), has worked with the College Democrats in the past, hosting watch parties for the Democratic debates.
However, Bad Axe junior and NAP member Charlie Hass said that unlike the College Democrats, NAP is fully behind Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
“What sets us apart from the College Dems is our focus on the progressive, democratic socialist side of liberal politics,” Hass said. “I value policies much more than anything else in any candidate. I can care less about what race, religion, or gender they are… What matters is what they are advocating for and how it’ll affect me, my friends, my family, and society.”
Hass values Sander’s policies of free college and Medicare for All. He says that because years of working on a farm and running a business weren’t enough to get himself through college without loans, Hass came to believe Sanders can help students afford an education.
NAP are not the only ones to work with the College Democrats. CMU is also home to its chapter of the College Republicans, run by Allegan sophomore Gabe Butzke, its president, and Grand Rapids freshman Olivia Ammerman, its vice president.
“There are things that we agree on with the College Democrats,” Butzke said. “The biggest one is that we really need to get young people to vote. I think in 2018 only 9 percent of CMU students actually voted. It’s our responsibility to get out there, knock on doors and put up signs; make sure that people come turn out for the president.”
Ammerman agreed that voter turnout was a pivotal factor that reaches beyond our campus.
“I think the American people and the people of Michigan still need to band together, and work to get the president re-elected,” Ammerman said. “We shouldn’t just take it for granted. He has done a lot of good.”
Butzke said that young people want their voices heard. So it’s important that we get our peers out to the voting booths to cast their ballots.
