2008 Woodie Awards
Hillary's last stand
Texas and Ohio primaries will decide her fate
By: Brent McDermott
Issue date: 2/27/08 Section: Voices
Barack Obama should be the Democratic Presidential nominee when CMU returns from spring break.
If Sen. Obama can deliver the knockout punch in Tuesday's Texas and Ohio primaries, the remaining primaries will be a formality.
Ten consecutive drubbings have made Obama the clear front runner and Clinton the long shot challenger. Big wins have boosted Obama's pledged delegate lead to 155 - almost insurmountable for Clinton to overcome.
Bill Clinton said it best last weekend, calling Texas and Ohio's contests, "do or die" for his wife's campaign.
Hillary Clinton has been beating the war drum, hyping these contests better than Don King in a Tyson-Foreman fight.
Referring to Obama as "All hat, no cowboy," at events in Texas have become a favorite Clinton punchline. Scolding, "Shame on you, Barack!" and taunting, "Meet me in Ohio!" are the latest Buckeye battle cries. Rest assured, it will get much uglier before election day.
The Clinton bravado seemed ingenious at the time, but now looks rather foolish.
As recent as Valentine's Day, Clinton was beating Obama in Ohio polls by 14 points and 16 in Texas. Twelve days later, Obama is now averaging a 2 percent lead in Texas and has trimmed Clinton's lead to 6 percent in Ohio. The Clinton Firewall gamble is starting to look like a losing hand.
Demographically speaking, Clinton would have ran away with Texas and Ohio back in early January.
Back then, Clinton could count on white women, Latinos and those with household incomes under $50,000.
Since then, Obama has made significant in-roads among Clinton's "bread and butter" voters.
Among women, Obama jumped from 26 percent support in December to 45 percent in February, but still trails Clinton who scores 51 percent. Obama's support has risen from 35 to 48 percent in Democratic households making $50,000 or less, and has whooed Latino-heavy urban areas Dallas and Houston in the past month.
If trends continue and Obama sweeps Texas and Ohio, Clinton's poll numbers will flatline and the race will be over.
Obama is averaging a six-point lead in national polls right now, and is growing with every new Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby survey. Even if Clinton doesn't formally drop out after Texas and Ohio losses, there is no victorious end game.
Hillary Clinton's only hope is for Obama to take the lead in Ohio polls. Confused? Allow me to explain.
Politics is a game of expectations. If Obama is supposed to be crowned in Ohio and Hillary pulls off the upset, be prepared to hear "comeback kid" and "don't ever count out the Clintons" from every cable news pundit.
Unfortunately for Clinton, this scenario seems highly unlikely. Clinton is experiencing the same fatigue Rudy Giulianni had after going 26 days without contesting a state.
Just like Rudy, Hillary is about to find herself on the sidelines.
If Sen. Obama can deliver the knockout punch in Tuesday's Texas and Ohio primaries, the remaining primaries will be a formality.
Ten consecutive drubbings have made Obama the clear front runner and Clinton the long shot challenger. Big wins have boosted Obama's pledged delegate lead to 155 - almost insurmountable for Clinton to overcome.
Bill Clinton said it best last weekend, calling Texas and Ohio's contests, "do or die" for his wife's campaign.
Hillary Clinton has been beating the war drum, hyping these contests better than Don King in a Tyson-Foreman fight.
Referring to Obama as "All hat, no cowboy," at events in Texas have become a favorite Clinton punchline. Scolding, "Shame on you, Barack!" and taunting, "Meet me in Ohio!" are the latest Buckeye battle cries. Rest assured, it will get much uglier before election day.
The Clinton bravado seemed ingenious at the time, but now looks rather foolish.
As recent as Valentine's Day, Clinton was beating Obama in Ohio polls by 14 points and 16 in Texas. Twelve days later, Obama is now averaging a 2 percent lead in Texas and has trimmed Clinton's lead to 6 percent in Ohio. The Clinton Firewall gamble is starting to look like a losing hand.
Demographically speaking, Clinton would have ran away with Texas and Ohio back in early January.
Back then, Clinton could count on white women, Latinos and those with household incomes under $50,000.
Since then, Obama has made significant in-roads among Clinton's "bread and butter" voters.
Among women, Obama jumped from 26 percent support in December to 45 percent in February, but still trails Clinton who scores 51 percent. Obama's support has risen from 35 to 48 percent in Democratic households making $50,000 or less, and has whooed Latino-heavy urban areas Dallas and Houston in the past month.
If trends continue and Obama sweeps Texas and Ohio, Clinton's poll numbers will flatline and the race will be over.
Obama is averaging a six-point lead in national polls right now, and is growing with every new Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby survey. Even if Clinton doesn't formally drop out after Texas and Ohio losses, there is no victorious end game.
Hillary Clinton's only hope is for Obama to take the lead in Ohio polls. Confused? Allow me to explain.
Politics is a game of expectations. If Obama is supposed to be crowned in Ohio and Hillary pulls off the upset, be prepared to hear "comeback kid" and "don't ever count out the Clintons" from every cable news pundit.
Unfortunately for Clinton, this scenario seems highly unlikely. Clinton is experiencing the same fatigue Rudy Giulianni had after going 26 days without contesting a state.
Just like Rudy, Hillary is about to find herself on the sidelines.
Viewing Comments 1 - 3 of 4
Reader
posted 2/27/08 @ 8:43 AM EST
Why is he continued to write? He is a operative for Barack Hussein Obama.
Journalist
posted 2/27/08 @ 12:07 PM EST
Reading Brent McDermott's column on Wednesday is like surfing the Internet on Friday, reading a quality weekly on Saturday, reading a national paper on Sunday or watching news tv on Monday or reading blogs on Tuesday. (Continued…)
Doug Brown
posted 3/09/08 @ 7:58 PM EST
Sir,
Well, spring break is over and the Democrats do not have a nominee. Another theory shot to hell.
Sounded more like hoping than actual reasoned prognostication. (Continued…)
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