Students could hold sway over local elections
All Michigan voters have the opportunity shape the future of their state Nov. 4, but Central Michigan University students also have the chance to be the most influential in selecting local legislators.
Isabella County lies in the 33rd district of the State Senate district and 99th district of the State House of Representatives, home to two -highly contested election battles. Because elections take place mid-way through a president's term, voter turnout is often significantly lower in mid-term elections. Iif students vote in high enough numbers, they could decide who wins.
"I teach two political science courses and everyone in my classes are registered, but some are registered in their hometown," said political science professor James Hill. "I think students have good intentions, but I they have to be incentivized (to vote). They have to find a reason to get to the polls, and I don’t know that they have been given that reason."
The Republican Party holds majority in the Senate and House, Republican nominees also dominate the executive branch..
The Democratic Party is looking to break the Republican stronghold in 2014, yet due to it being a mid-term election, they might have a hard time.
Political science professor David Jesuit said voters consistently head to the ballot box during mid-term elections to punish the party of the president.
"In the literature of political science, there what is called is surge and decline, which says in a presidential election year, a substantial number of additional people vote," Jesuit said. "People are more likely to vote to punish than to reward; they're more motivated voters in general."
State House of Representatives
In the State House, Democrats will need to take five seats to gain a majority. Michigan is a state with high turnover due to term limits, and the number of seats that were competitive in 2012 gives the Democrats opportunities to take the House. It all hinges on getting their supporters out to vote, and traditionally, Republicans have a higher turnout in mid-term elections.
Locally, incumbent State Rep. Kevin Cotter, R-Mount Pleasant is facing off against Bryan Mielke, both of whome received his bachelor and master's degrees from Central Michigan University. The candidates have highlighted higher education as a campaign theme.
"If students really were to vote, they could make the difference in that race," Jesuit said. "There’s a sense that it’s close, given the amount of late money coming in. (Cotter) knowns he is in a competitive race."
Cotter, who is favored to replace Jase Bolger, R- Marshall, for Speaker for the House.
The 99th District hasn't seen a Democrat in years and regardless of the outcome, this race could be an important model for the party to see what needs to be done to increase turnouts.
"If students show up in a reasonable number they have enough votes to swing the election in either direction," Hill said. "I’ll be watching to see if this election is decided by student votes. It very well could be."
The State Senate
Heading into the Nov. 4 election, Republicans hold 26 Senate seats to the Democratic party's 12.
Jesuit said the electorate favors Republicans because the districts are not representative of population like the House. Rural areas generally tend to vote red.
"There will be some swing, I don’t know if Democrats will have enough to control the House but it will be close," Hill said. "I think the legislature will remain in Republican control albeit by smaller margins."
State Sen. Judy Emmons, 33rd District incumbent candidate, has been in office since 2011. She faces off against Democratic opponent Fred Sprague, who received his undergraduate and master's degrees from CMU.
Both ran unopposed in the primary races.
Political Science Department Chair Lawrence Sych said generally Republican voters seem more enthusiastic and are benefitting from Democratic candidates distancing themselves from President Barack Obama.
Snyder versus Schauer
Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and his Democratic opponent, former Congressman Mark Schauer, are engaged in a closer than expected race for the governor's mansion.
Recent polling for the general election revealed a close race, with a Mitchell Research survey showing a five-point lead for Snyder when all candidates were available to respondents.
Schauer has taken to the airwaves to blast his opponent for cutting education funding, while Snyder lauds his efforts in increasing state funding for K-12, shaping the argument away from higher education.
"More people are focused on K-12 and the per pupil cost, than higher-ed because (college) students are apathetic," Hill said. "You don’t organize-you don’t vote you don’t count. If (students) were to become more organized and advocate for students, that might change."
Both the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press endorsed Snyder, which Hill said indicates two things: This it is a race that neither candidate has grabbed ahold of, and there doesn’t appear to be a defining issue that separates the two.
sually goes to the incumbent," Hill said. "But, don’t trust polling yet. Snyder's lead is supposedly expanding, but it is not much beyond margin of error; it could go either way."
Sych said while some people may prefer a bipartisan government, people probably aren't thinking about that in the ballot box.
