COLUMN: All eyes on the state for primary
With Michigan’s presidential primary election just a day away, all eyes are on the state to see who we will select as the Republican nominee to challenge President Obama in November.
Alongside Michigan, Arizona will also be holding their primary tomorrow.
Arizona is a winner-take-all state, and with Mitt Romney expected to win the primary there, Arizona’s delegates are likely safe to be placed into the Romney column. Michigan, on the other hand, splits some of its delegates up by Congressional district, so in a close race it would be possible for the winner of the state to not receive the most delegates.
From the polls so far, neither Newt Gingrich nor Ron Paul have gathered enough support in the state, leaving the battle for Michigan’s delegates between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Santorum had surged in Michigan polls in the middle of February but peaked a bit too soon and the polls now have Romney with a slight advantage again.
Ultimately, Santorum’s surge may have hurt him more than helped. With Michigan being one of Romney’s “home states,” political pundits were sure that Romney had Michigan in the bag back in late January.
Instead, the narrative in February changed to one where Michigan could be a close state. Had Santorum snuck up on Romney and simply lost by a close margin, the story in the media would have been that Romney nearly lost his home state, but now with that possibility having been fleshed out for weeks, even a marginal Romney win on Tuesday will likely be viewed simply as a “win” for the Romney campaign.
Tuesday has the opportunity to greatly impact the rest of the primary race. If Santorum pulls off a win, it will add to his momentum going into Super Tuesday on March 6, where 10 states will vote, and will most likely mark the end of the Romney campaign. If Romney pulls off a win, he will reassure Republican voters that he can garner support and will go into Super Tuesday very competitively.
From there the primary race could take a lot of turns, but if things continue going the way they have so far, it could be a long fight to the nomination. While Gingrich and Paul have little chance of winning the nomination, their delegates may be enough to put one candidate over the top, and as we get closer to the convention, one of them may become the “kingmaker”.
Regardless of what happens in the end, it will be the results in Michigan on Tuesday that get the ball rolling in its final direction and Michigan has not played a vital role like this in recent Presidential politics.
