Rayson’s success hinges on first shot: Fact or Fiction?
Focus, confidence shape junior guard's scoring approach
Braylon Rayson isn’t afraid to say it.
“When the first goes in, I feel like I’m just hot for the rest of the game,” the junior guard said. “Anything. A layup, free throw. Any time I hit my first shot, it’s going to be a good day.”
Rayson said he doesn’t consider himself streaky, but does believe in momentum. The 5-foot-9 Dallas native has an unwavering swagger once he starts making shots.
“It’s like throwing a rock in the ocean,” Rayson said. “You feel like every time it leaves your hand, it’s going in. That’s how I feel.”
But what about when that first shot doesn’t go in? Or the next one after that? What does that mean for the rest of his day? Head Coach Keno Davis said he doesn’t put much stock into Rayson’s first shot.
“As coaches, we have a lot of confidence in him and I couldn’t tell you one game from the next if he made his first shot or not. It doesn’t really affect what we do,” Davis said.
Numbers never lie?
The Chippewas are 5-2 on nights when Rayson makes his first shot and 6-6 in games he misses the first attempt. However, wins and losses often depend on more than whether a player gets hold or goes cold.
Here’s a look at Rayson’s numbers, specifically.
In the seven games Rayson started the day with a bucket, he has averaged 20 points per game. Of the 98 field goals attempted, Rayson made 48.98 percent of them (48). From the 3-point line, he is 22-of-49 (44.9 percent).
When starting with a miss, Rayson averaged 14.75 points per game, hitting 57-of-143 field goals (39.86 percent) and 24-of-68 3-point attempts (35.29 percent).
The first set of data gives him at least two points to begin with, narrowing the gap between the two scenarios further.
The verdict? Rayson can get hot at any time — like Tuesday, when he followed up a 1-for-7 start by making his next four shots and scored seven points over a 1:15 period.
But the sooner, the better.
The anatomy of a miss
Sophomore guard Luke Meyer said he is able to remain confident after misses because of how the coaching staff handles the situation.
“I’m lucky enough to have coaches who know I can make shots and are willing to let me keep shooting,” Meyer said.
Davis said the general rule is if the players are allowed to take certain shots during practice, they can take them during a game.
“It’s important from a coaching perspective that you don’t give a quick hook to somebody because they missed a shot,” Davis said. “They can’t be looking over to the bench to see if a sub’s coming in because they missed a play or made a mistake.”
Rayson averages about two fewer field goals and one-and-a-half fewer 3-point shots in the games he misses his first shot. As CMU’s leading scorer, Rayson knows he’s likely to heat up eventually.“Shooters gotta shoot,” he said. “Keep shooting. One of these games, I don’t know if it’s coming tomorrow, but it’s coming. We might break a record out there (for 3-pointers). You never know.”
Getting going early in the second half is just as important, Rayson said. He mentioned games where he started 0-for-5, like against Eastern Michigan on Jan. 6, before dropping 17 points in the second half.
“I was always taught, no matter what the score is at halftime, always restart at 0-0,” he said. “You can be up 20 at the half. If you go into the locker room and you think that you’re up 20, you’re going to come out like you’re up 20.”
Rayson averages about 10 points in the second half of games regardless of whether he makes or misses the first shot of the second stanza.
But his shooting percentages are vastly better when starting the period with a make — making about 13 percent more field goals and 11.5 percent more 3-point attempts.
From the parking lot
The 1,000-point scorer is unique to the 3MU shooters in that range isn’t a factor.
Rayson can pull up and knock down shots from the edge of the “Flying C” logo at McGuirk Arena with complete confidence.
“His range right now is probably a comfortable NBA range,” Davis said. “It’s rare that you’ll see him take one further than that. I think his percentages speak for themselves. You wouldn’t let players do that unless they could do so at a pretty high percentage where it was a good shot for the team.”
His shot selection has improved over his three years on the court, Davis said, and makes it even more difficult on defenses because of his ability to drive to the basket.
Rayson admits it feels good to hit a shot from an extra step or two back — something that normally makes coaches and fans cringe.
“Sometimes, I don’t even notice where I’m shooting it from until I look at the film,” he said. “I’ll be like, ‘Oh, that was deep.’”
It doesn’t matter where he is. He’s ready to throw the next one up.
Braylon Rayson, after all, isn’t afraid of much.
