Recent action by North Korea against South Korea kills four, injures 15; continued activities would be 'foolish, like suicidal' says political science professor
Hostilities between North and South Korea have been escalating for months, but some think tensions won’t evolve into a nuclear conflict.
Won Paik, CMU political science professor, said North Korea took a “calculated risk” in its recent attack on its southern counterpart.
“They calculated that the South will not escalate into a more general conflict,” he said.
Continued attacks by North Korea, Paik said, would be “foolish, like suicidal.”
Last week’s attack on Yeonpyeong Island was a response to the South’s joint military drills with the United States in the area, near the countries’ disputed sea border. The bombardment was the first artillery attack against South Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953.
Four people, including two civilians, were killed and 15 were injured.
“When you have an attack where civilians are residing, it can’t get more hostile than that,” Paik said.
Conflict between the two nations has increased dramatically in the past year, involving a rise in border skirmishes and the sinking of the South Korean battleship Cheonan by what experts have suggested to be North Korean torpedoes in March, Paik said.
American battleships in the Yellow Sea continuing military exercises with the South Korean and Japanese navies further reduces the probability of more North Korean attacks, Paik said.
Assistant Professor of history Randall Doyle has lived in South Korea and said international interests in the region will be a large factor in preventing an all-out war.
“It does have the potential to expand to another Korean War, but it probably won’t because China, the U.S. and Japan have simply too much at risk to allow it to develop into another Korean War,” Doyle said.
“I suspect tensions led to weapons buildups and outright hostilities,” said Sterling Johnson, a professor of political science.
A major factor in the tension is North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
“They’re trying to develop nuclear weapons, which puts pressure on Japan, South Korea and the US,” Johnson said. “It also makes China very nervous.”
On Tuesday, North Korea released details on their nuclear program but claimed it will be used only for peaceful purposes.
South Korea’s military drills were a way to “flex their muscle, and North Korea decided to flex a little muscle back,” Johnson said.
WikiLeaks
Published reports say government cables released by website WikiLeaks contain conversations between U.S. and South Korean diplomats about the possibility of a united Korea if Kim Jong-Il’s regime collapses due to economic troubles and the upcoming transition of power to one of his sons.
Johnson said this new information will probably have little effect on the situation.
The leaked documents also said China would not be against reunification with South Korea controlling the entire peninsula, Doyle said.
“Reunification (of the two countries) is a long-term objective of the United Nations,” he said. “The question is under whose leadership.”
